Republicans have spent more than $300,000 on television advertising to defend Missouri’s 34th Senate District, a seat that has historically leaned Republican. The district, which Donald Trump carried by 11 percentage points in 2024, is currently represented by term-limited state Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer. Republican state Rep. Mike Jones of Kansas City faces Democrat Shereka Barnes, a member of the Park Hill Board of Education, in the race to replace Luetkemeyer.
Luetkemeyer won the seat with 52.5% of the vote in 2018, then won re-election with 59% in 2022. However, the district’s boundaries changed in between, with Platte County becoming a larger share of the electorate after Buchanan County was split during redistricting.
A poll from August suggests a shift in sentiment toward Republicans. Between February and August, the St. Louis University YouGov poll of the generic congressional ballot moved 41 points against Republicans in northwest Missouri. The survey put Republicans 11 points behind, though the regional samples included just over 50 voters in each poll, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions about the size or significance of the shift.
Ed Taylor, a professor of political science at Missouri Western State University in St. Joseph, noted that the poll’s broader findings fit a tougher environment for Republicans than a year ago. “Trump’s approval among Missouri likely voters slipped underwater for the first time in that poll, and approval of Gov. Mike Kehoe and the legislature hit new lows,” Taylor said in an email.
Despite the shift in polling, Democrats face a steep climb in the 34th District. “The district leans Republican, roughly R+11 based on the 2024 presidential vote,” Taylor said. “Republicans outnumber Democrats considerably among Missouri voters. Even with a better environment for Democrats, they’d need to overperform that baseline substantially.”
If Barnes defeats Jones, it won’t be by outspending him. Barnes has raised $39,877 since starting her campaign, spent $29,168 and had $3,831 on hand on Sept. 30. Jones raised $124,204 from late August to the end of September and had about $220,000 on hand on Sept. 30. Beverly PAC, a committee backing Jones, raised $166,827 and had just over $245,000 available. Beverly PAC reported another $122,000, mainly from PACs associated with other Republican senators, in the past week.
Jones’ campaign spent $190,000 on Kansas City broadcast ads, while Beverly PAC purchased more than $50,000 worth time on St. Joseph television stations. Another $73,000 in television buys came in the St. Joseph market from the Missouri Senate Campaign Committee, the PAC that backs GOP Senate candidates generally.
The main factor working against Republicans in northwest Missouri is Trump, said Jessica Gracey, an associate professor of political science at Northwest Missouri State University. Gracey was the treasurer for a Democratic Missouri House campaign that spent nearly a quarter of a million dollars in 2022 and got a quarter of the total vote. Polling nationally shows voter discontent with inflation and the war. Northwest Missouri farmers are buying diesel at record prices to harvest crops and making contracts for fertilizer that has also gotten expensive as the price of oil has increased.
