Thousands of Nebraskans gathered in Grand Island, Nebraska, on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026, at the Nebraska State Fairgrounds for a midterms rally featuring President Donald Trump.
Two bizarre episodes during Arkansas’ midterm election campaign highlight the impact of Trump and his allies on state politics. Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders was accused by conservative influencers of going woke, while Sen. Tom Cotton was doxxed by the president over a dispute about daylight saving time.
Sanders’ now-infamous Brad ad featured an actor playing a Medicaid recipient sitting on a bean bag chair eating cheese balls and playing video games. Arkansas voters are familiar with the playbook, which includes executive orders banning “Latinx” and campaign ads mocking trans athletes. Sanders hoped to use the ad to tout Arkansas’ Medicaid work requirements taking effect next year, but the outrage came primarily from elements of the right, with conservative commentators and influencers offended that “Brad” was portrayed by a white actor.
Cotton’s unusual exchange with Trumpland wasn’t of his own making. The two-term lawmaker was targeted by Trump in a Truth Social screed that criticized the senator for opposing a bill making daylight saving time permanent. In the post, Trump shared what he said was Cotton’s cellphone number.
Sanders and Cotton aren’t the first Republicans to experience the finicky nature of Trump and other top Republicans. Republican U.S. Rep. French Hill witnessed that firsthand when Trump abruptly canceled plans to sign bipartisan legislation that Hill crafted as he faced a heated reelection bid. Trump ultimately allowed the bill to become law, but without his signature.
Distance from Trump and some elements of the right could be an upside for Sanders or Cotton in an election season where the president’s low approval numbers have put Republican states like Iowa and even South Carolina potentially in play.
Cotton and Sanders are still sticking with messages designed to keep their base engaged. Less than a week after the Brad ad, Sanders unveiled two new spots that included one singling out Democratic figures like New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. Cotton, meanwhile, has ramped up his attacks on Democratic rival Hallie Shoffner over immigration.
With Republicans and their allies vastly outspending Democrats in Arkansas, a November upset still feels like a longshot. Aside from a poll showing surprisingly close races for Cotton and Hill, there’s been a dearth of polling in the state. A mercurial president and his base, however, add a little more uncertainty.
The danger for Republicans is the Brad ad and daylight saving doxxing are drawing attention to a state that’s mostly stayed off the radar nationally. Meanwhile, national Democrats are investing more in Chris Jones’ bid to unseat Hill and strategist James Carville touting Shoffner’s challenge to Cotton as the midterm’s sleeper race.
The November election is testing how much Arkansas Republicans can withstand a challenging environment for their party nationally. It’s also offering the party a cautionary tale about the limits of being loyal to Trump.
