A September 2026 survey by Bowling Green State University shows Democrat Dr. Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy are within the margin of error. The BGSU Poll, a web-based survey of 1,000 likely Ohio voters conducted from September 1-10, 2026, has a margin of error of just about four percentage points. Currently, Dr. Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy 48% to 45%, placing this race clearly within the margin of error. More specifically, Dr. Acton’s actual level of support is somewhere between 44% and 52%, while Mr. Ramaswamy’s is between 41% and 49%. Because those ranges overlap, the race is said to be a statistical tie.
Currently, Dr. Acton leads among Independents 45% to 34%. Women, younger voters, Blacks, and Hispanics support her, while men and older and white voters prefer Mr. Ramaswamy. Those with a four-year degree or more overwhelmingly support Dr. Acton, while those without a four-year degree more narrowly support Mr. Ramaswamy.
These are not surprising results, as these are not new relationships in the current American political landscape. Perhaps the most interesting finding is with regard to political party. As expected, Democrats support Dr. Acton, while Republicans support Mr. Ramaswamy. However, the difference in the strength of that partisan support may be meaningful. Currently, 96% of Democrats support Dr. Acton, while 87% of Republicans support Mr. Ramaswamy. Five percent of Republicans support Libertarian candidate Don Kissick, while three percent say they plan to vote for someone else.
Currently, Dr. Acton holds a net favorable/unfavorable rating of -1, while Mr. Ramaswamy has a net favorability rating of -11. Political scientists often think of mid-term elections as either a referendum on the incumbent or as being driven by the increased enthusiasm of the party that most recently lost the presidency. Currently both of these factors seem to be helping the Democrats. President Donald Trump is -16 in net favorability, and Democratic-leaning voters are more enthusiastic than Republican voters about showing up to vote by a factor of nearly two to one.
Given that it’s football season, why not conclude with a potentially over-used sports metaphor? The Ohio Governor’s election is tied, but the Acton campaign has the ball and they are at the 50 yard line (or, if you’re in Canada, the 55 yard line). There’s two minutes to go. Still anyone’s ballgame.
