Dr. Hope Tinker, a Democratic candidate in the 48th Missouri House District, and state Rep. Tim Taylor, the Republican incumbent, looked over pies entered in the Brunswick Pecan Festival pecan pie contest before they were auctioned on Oct. 3. Over five consecutive elections from 1974 through 1982, Missouri Democrats elected supermajorities – more than two-thirds of the 163 members – to the Missouri House. The party drew its strength from rural voters, union households and Black-majority urban districts. The supermajority ended as rural voters, who had developed a habit of voting Republican in national races, turned from Democrats in local contests. By the mid-1990s Democrats held only 87 seats – five more than a majority – and have been in the minority in Jefferson City since 2003. Republicans are on a streak of their own, winning a supermajority in seven consecutive elections. But with Democrats needing to gain just three seats to break that streak, Republicans are playing defense in nearly every legislative race attracting significant attention and money.
House Majority Leader Alex Riley of Springfield, slated to become speaker, isn’t sure about extending the streak. “I expect to be the Republican speaker with a very strong majority,” Riley said. “As far as what that looks like, I don’t know.” House Minority Leader Ashley Aune of Kansas City said Democrats will win at least 55 seats for the first time since 2010. “People ask me all the time how many seats we’re gonna flip, and I always tell them we’re gonna break the supermajority and then some,” Aune said. The national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is targeting 12 districts, including 11 held by Republicans. The House Republican Campaign Committee is focused on defending 13 seats, including 10 on the Democrats’ list, while targeting a single Democrat for defeat. Republicans entered the fall campaign with $3 million on hand at the HRCC. The House Democratic Action Fund has less than one-tenth of those resources.
Overall, Democrats are contesting 158 seats while Republicans have candidates in 134 districts. Republicans start with five seats in unopposed districts while Democrats can count 29. The Independent rated the remaining districts based on past results and identified 39 districts that are potentially in play. The challenge for Democrats is to break out of their current strongholds. No Democrat has won a predominantly rural district since 2010. The Independent visited three districts – one in the Kansas City region, one in central Missouri and one in St. Louis County – where the results will test assumptions about where the parties are competitive and where they are not.
12th District The 12th District, which sits along the Missouri River in southern Platte County, is the only district Republicans took from Democrats in 2024, prevailing by 179 votes. The seat is open because incumbent Republican state Rep. Mike Jones is the GOP nominee in the 34th District state Senate race. Tracey Steele, a commercial real estate attorney, is the Democratic nominee against Jerry Hickey, owner of an employment placement firm. Both object to the attack ads flooding the district. To back Steele, the union-funded Will of the People political action committee is attacking Hickey for accepting a Paycheck Protection Program loan in 2020 and later purchasing a new home. The loans were eligible for forgiveness if recipients met federal requirements. In a social media post, Hickey said the home was purchased a year after the loan was forgiven. Tracey Steele, right, watches his online ad, with Matt Smithmier, center, and Jess Toms, left, while campaigning for the 12th District Missouri House seat on Oct. 10 in the Thousand Oaks neighborhood of southern Platte County. Smithmier did the voiceover work on the ad.
