Missouri Republicans’ advantage among voters has narrowed sharply this year, but that shift may do little to change the state’s congressional delegation on Nov. 3. An August St. Louis University/YouGov survey showed Missourians were just about evenly split between Republicans and Democrats on a generic congressional ballot, a major gain for Democrats from a poll in February.
But Democratic voters are mainly concentrated in the 1st and 5th districts. Republicans won the other six by comfortable margins in 2024 and there’s only one race that has attracted significant broadcast advertising: The 2nd District in eastern Missouri. Incumbent U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner raised $562,000 from mid-July through Sept. 30 and spent $2.4 million in that period defending her seat. She has spent $1.2 million on broadcast ads so far, according to tracking by The Independent. Her Democratic opponent, Fred Wellman, outraised Wagner in the period by more than $200,000 but was outspent by an almost 6-to-1 margin. Wellman has spent only $271,000 on broadcast advertising.
Wagner, a longtime figure in Missouri Republican politics, is seeking her eighth term. Wellman, a retired military officer, is making his first bid for office. Interviews with voters in the district revealed sharply different views of national politics. Kay Wiese of Ballwin told The Independent she believes suburban swing voters are souring on Republicans. “There’s not a lot of thoughtful input from a lot of the folks that we have on the Republican side,” she said. “I feel like they are mostly puppets in that party. It’s just like they are not standing up for the middle class, the more common people.” But Pat Compton of Winchester said she sees no reason to change her support for Republicans. While many voters are angry over high gas prices, she is not. “I’m for the war in Iran,” Compton said. “Once that gets settled, the prices will change.”
The 2nd District is the most competitive congressional race in Missouri, according to Cook Political Report. It is rated as “Likely Republican” while the other seven districts are rated as “solid” for the incumbent party. On the west side of Missouri, intense battles for seats in Congress are playing out on television – but the ads are for races in Kansas. Republicans did try to make another Missouri congressional district competitive this year, but not through campaign advertising. Last year, Republican lawmakers redrew six of Missouri’s eight congressional districts in an effort to flip the Democratic-held 5th District in Kansas City. But a referendum campaign put the 2025 map on the Nov. 3 ballot, and the courts blocked its use in this year’s election. It took a ruling from the Missouri Supreme Court on Sept. 3, affirmed three times by the U.S. Supreme Court, to end the GOP’s effort to use the 2025 map in November alongside the referendum.
The Republican nominee in the district – state Sen. Rick Brattin – struggled to raise money in September, when the redistricting plan was in dispute in state and federal courts. A campaign disclosure report filed this week shows Brattin raised only $900 in the five days after the U.S. Supreme Court’s Sept. 25 decision. His last significant promotional expense was $2,855 for yard signs on the day of the Missouri Supreme Court ruling.
